CREDIT SUISSE: Reversed Long EUR/USD Into Short At 1.3300

Credit Suisse booked profit on its long EUR/USD from 1.3035 by reversing into short at 1.3300, with a stop at 1.3435. "EUR/USD has again managed to find support at minor trendline support, which keeps the immediate bias still higher," CS says. "With the 1.3418 June peak not far above, and with momentum now beginning to deteriorate, we look for a cap here, and a turn lower in the range. Below 1.3234 looks to 1.3166, and through here would see...

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For The First Time In Ages, European Unemployment Actually Falls

Unemployment in Europe is still in nosebleed territories, but for the first time in ages it didn't get worse in the month of June. In the Eurozone, unemployment was stable at 12.1% (slightly beating expectations) and for the EU there was actually a dip to 10.9% from 11.0%. Here's chart showing improvement on the EU line for the first time in year. Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/for-the-first-time-in-ages-european-unemployment-ac...

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BARCLAYS: Ahead Of FOMC & ECB, Sold EUR/USD Targeting 1.28

"The meetings for the FOMC, ECB and BoE this week will be particularly important in defining the near-term paths of the respective currencies. While their overall outcomes may be mixed, we believe the balance of risks lies in favour of establishing short EUR/USD positions once again and yesterday they did as such. FX reaction functions have changed… The July meetings for the ECB and BoE surprised FX markets by formally (ECB) or de facto (BoE)...

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CITI - FOMC Over/Under

The FOMC statement this week will be under much closer scrutiny than would have been expected a week ago. In this regard, Citibank outlines the following dovish/hawkish risks in the FOMC statement on Wednesday: Risks on the dovish side (from most to least): 1. Indication that the tapering timetable has changed 2. An explicit drop in the threshold unemployment rate 3. An explicit Inflation floor 4. Concern that economic...

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If You're Wondering What's Wrong With America, Look At These Four Charts

Five years after the start of the financial crisis, the U.S. economy is still struggling. Unemployment is above 7%. Growth is weak. Most consumers are broke. Meanwhile, the stock market is hitting record highs, and corporations are printing money. If you're wondering what's going on here--why these two seemingly contradictory things are happening--we have four charts for you. They go a long way to explaining why our economy is the...

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Why It’s So Risky To Be Long USD/JPY At The Moment

Today is a preamble to a week that features a swath of top-tier data but one thing stands out — the declines in yen crosses, especially USD/JPY. Last week, USD/JPY was the worst performer and under normal conditions, you might see a bounce on a day like today. But USD/JPY isn’t normal. Why? Because speculators are heavily long the pair. The market is very short USD/JPY, despite recent declines. Unless the news and Fed unambiguously...

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Bernanke Is Definitely Going To Taper Soon, And It Has 'Nothing' To Do With The Economy

  This is an interesting note from Credit analyst Harley Bassman at Credit Suisse, who argues that Ben Bernanke is guaranteed to "taper" soon (meaning, reduce the pace of the Fed's monthly bond purchases) and that it has nothing to do with economic reality.  1) The announcement of "taper" has NOTHING to do with the economy, it has everything to do with Mr. Bernanke's legacy.  This was his "irrational exuberance" speech...

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S&P: A True Recovery Appears 'A Long Way Off' For Eurozone

Rating agency Standard & Poor's Monday offered up a downbeat outlook for the Eurozone, warning that while the monetary union will exit its recession next year, festering and as-yet-unaddressed problems will mean a sustained recovery in the Euro Area "appears a long way off." In a report articulating the view of its Credit Conditions Committee, S&P also said it sees the Federal Reserve not reducing the pace of its asset purchases until...

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CREDIT AGRICOLE: EUR/USD To Test 1.34 Mid-Week Then Go Bust

Expecting no meaningful changes to the ECB’s introductory statement, EUR direction should be largely driven by US events this week. One exception relates to possible comments to be received during the Draghi Q&A regarding forward guidance. Investors appear to be expecting the governor to deliver greater details regarding forward guidance policy than at his June policy statement. As such, another failure to provide greater policy clarity...

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People Are Using Borrowed Money To Buy Stock Like It's 2007 And 1999

Deutsche Bank has a monster note out on margin debt that has been making the rounds.  The conclusion of the note is rather simple – today’s euphoric borrowing on margin to buy stocks is reminiscent of past bubbly equity market periods (see here for more).  The note reviews commentary from the 1999 & 2007 periods and compares it to what’s being said today.  They found some eerie similarities: We prepared a collection of...

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