Understand The Trading Arena

"It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle." Sun Tzu

dimanche 23 février 2014

George Soros: 'I Believe In The Euro' And Am Looking To Invest In EU Banks

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - George Soros wants to invest in Europe's financial sector, according to a German magazine's interview with the billionaire investor on Sunday. "I believe in the euro," weekly Der Spiegel quoted him as saying. "Therefore my investment team is looking forward to make a lot of money soon in Europe by, for example, pumping money in banks which urgently need capital," he added, noting...

EUR: Here Is What To Expect Ahead Of Eurozone Inflation Print On Fri - Citi

Global commodity prices have been on the rise recently driven by cold weather in the northern hemisphere and, to a certain degree, weak dollar. Below we assess the risks that the latest bounce pose ahead of the Eurozone inflation print next Friday. We conclude that the latest price spike, if not sustained, may be too small to have a lasting impact on HICP. In addition, EUR appreciation continues YoY and that could limit the impact. Still weak...

lundi 17 février 2014

Zulauf on Global Economy: “Another Deflationary Episode”

By Felix Zulauf (via Itau Global Connections). The U.S. has run an ever increasing deficit in her trade and current account since the early 1980s. She has thereby provided tremendous stimulus to the rest of the world by allowing other countries to export to an increasing extent. Some have accepted this opportunity with pleasure and have built a powerful export industry due to their competitive labor costs. The U.S. policy of increasing monetary...

dimanche 9 février 2014

Goldman Explains How Economic Weakness Has Spread Across The World In Recent Months

In recent weeks, fears of economic weakness have resurfaced as a bout of risk aversion has swept across global markets. Economic data surprise indices have turned decisively lower, indicating that economic data are now coming in below consensus forecasts. "It is hard to avoid the reality that the overall macro data picture is bleaker now than a few months ago," says Aleksandar Timcenko, a vice president on the global macro strategy team at Goldman...

mercredi 5 février 2014

'It's A Matter Of Time' For EUR Bears: Forecasts & Risks - BofA Merrill

The following are Bank of America Merrill Lynch's atest comprehensive outlook for the EUR including its forecasts, and risks: Forecasts: it's a matter of time. We remain Euro bearish, expecting EURUSD at 1.31 by the end of Q1 and 1.25 by the end of 2014. However, we see some upside risks to our projection in the short-term, taking into account how the Euro has traded so far in the year. For the Euro to weaken, we need to see a slowing...

dimanche 2 février 2014

Emerging Markets Are Cornered And In A 'Lose-Lose' Situation

Here's an important way of thinking about what's going on in emerging markets right now. From The Guardian: Stephen Jen of currency hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners said: "Many of these emerging-market economies [including Turkey] are cornered: they have to choose between defending the exchange rate, fighting inflation and supporting growth. Sudden stops in capital inflows tend to force countries to face lose-lose situations." India,...