Deutsche Bank, Nomura, Credit Suisse, Commerzbank All Short EUR/USD

After BNP Paribas stopped out of its long EUR/USD position on Friday, it becomes clear that at the moment bulls are increasingly getting out of the long trade while the short trade is gradually getting crowded.

On the top of the list of big names who are currently running short EUR/USD positions is Deutsche Bank. DB entered this macro trade call in early March targeting 1.20.

Beyond its broad bullish dollar view, DB sees two factors driving the pair lower over the coming weeks and months: First, DB sees divergence in conventional policy expectations (rates) returning. Second, and more importantly, DB sees the reduction of Eurozone risk premia as negative, not positive for the EUR with its models suggesting there is little redenomination risk priced into the EUR anymore.

Nomura also made it to this list this week with a macro short EUR/USD call via options: 1.20-1.25 put spread in EUR/USD with expiry on Dec 31, 2013.

"A trending Dollar move is a very clear possibility, and we view our long-dated exposure as strategic," Nomura says.

On the technical trades front, Commerzbank is short EUR/USD from May 02 (1.3171) and then from May 16 (1.2915) targeting 1.2750.

Commerzbank latest rationale behind this call is that EUR/USD has finally managed to break below Fibo support at 1.2839, the 78.6% retracement of the move from April and this is considered to be the last defense for the 1.2740 recent low.

Credit Suisse also maintains short technical tactical EUR/USD from May 15 (1.2935)targeting 1.2775.

"We stay bearish for the 1.2772/46 March low/neckline. Below would warn of a large head & shoulders top, CS says as a rationale behind this call.

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