Investors following short-term macro strategies should consider selling AUD/NZD this week, advises Barclays Capital in its weekly FX pick to clients.
A couple of risk events are ahead for the AUD/NZD cross. The RBA board Minutes (Tues) will be worth attention to see whether the RBA retains a weak easing bias. As for NZ Q3 CPI (Wed), we are slightly above consensus, looking for 0.8% q/q (consensus: 0.7%)," Barclays says as a rationale behind this call.
"Meanwhile, China’s September data set (Friday) will likely provide a more mixed picture for the AUD. We expect a slight pullback in y/y industrial production growth after the surprising jump in August, but see fixed asset investment growth edging up further given the government’s stabilisation measures. We expect consumption to remain robust, in part due to a boost from the mid-Autumn festival. Q3 GDP growth is like to rise to 7.7% y/y, up from 7.5% in Q2," Barclays adds.
"Overall, we see the risk to AUD/NZD to be tilted towards downside," Barclays projects.
Read more: http://www.efxnews.com/story/21188/barclays-trade-week-sell-audnzd-rba-minutes-nz-cpi
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