COMMERZBANK - Sold EUR/USD From 1.3490, Sold Cable From 1.6220

EUR/USD’s recent high at 1.3584 is viewed as an intermediate peak, notes Commerzbank "We look for the 1.3295/94 zone to be retested (current November low and the 50% retracement of the move up from July) and would again allow for this to hold the initial test. However following Wednesday’s key day reversal to the downside the risk has increased for a break lower to the 200 day moving average at 1.3219 and below here we target the 1.3167/05...

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CITI - Added More JPY Shorts To Its Overlay Portfolio

Citi maintained most of the positions in its overlay portfolio for the coming week with only adding more downside JPY exposure and NOK upside as an offset. "This week one of the notable themes has been Yen depreciation. No specific catalyst caused the initial move, but weaker than expected trade data, and technicals have most likely intensified the selling. We expect Yen selling to continue and have therefore decreased our positioning by 5...

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UBS - Keep Buying USD/JPY Dips Into Next Wk; Sell EUR/USD On 1.3460 Break

Once again the main indicator for yen's move was the Nikkei as futures were up 1.5% when USD/JPY traded up to 101.36, but it's Friday, and after a few days of one-way street, some profit taking kicked but USD/JPY is back trading comfortably above 101, notes UBS. "Expect 100-101.50 range going into Thanksgiving Day end of next week with a favour of buying dips. 100.60 is the first support, then 99.70/80 in the "bigger" picture. Topside...

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GOLDMAN SACHS- Why We Don't Expect Pronounced Dollar Strength N-Term?

In the near to medium term, Goldman Sachs projects that European currencies still have some scope to strengthen against the USD and may generally outperform in the near term until EUR appreciation forces the ECB to act more strongly to limit the tightening of financial conditions. In line with this view,GS expects EUR/USD to trade around 1.38, 1.40, and 140 in 3, 6, and 12 months. "The reason why we do not expect very pronounced Dollar...

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November Hasn't Been A Great Month For The Global Economy

For the most part, October was a pretty good month for the global economy. Most economic reports reflected resilience despite elevated political uncertainty and a lengthy government shutdown in the world's largest economy: the U.S. "Did the consumer even realize there was a federal government shutdown?" asked Mitsubishi economist Chris Rupkey after Wednesday's extraordinary October retail sales report. However, the early November...

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BARCLAYS: Sell AUD/USD Into RBA & FOMC Minutes

Investors following short-term macro strategies should consider selling AUD/USD this week, advises Barclays Capital in its weekly FX pick to clients. The trade is a tactical short around the minutes of the RBA and the FOMC this week. "The RBA communication this week is likely to weigh on the AUD. Minutes from its November policy statement (Tuesday) are likely to reiterate the central bank’s concerns about the high level of the AUD. In addition,...

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What Yellen Didn't Tell Congress And Why It Matters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The most revealing thing about Janet Yellen's widely praised Senate confirmation hearing performance last week might not have been what she said, but what she didn't say - and how she didn't say it. President Barack Obama's nominee to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve smiled and nodded her way through a two-hour hearing on Thursday without giving the Senate Banking Committee any real clues as to how she views...

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Here's Where Investors Think We Are In The Global Economic Cycle

According to BofA Merrill Lynch's November Global Fund Manager Survey, a majority of investors believe the global economy is half-way from the last recession to the next one. "With respect to the economic cycle, an overwhelming 54% of investors think the global economy is in mid-cycle," write BAML strategists in a note to clients. "Only 1% thinks we are currently in recession." The remaining 45% are split pretty evenly between "early cycle"...

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The #1 Thing Hedge Fund Managers Are Worried About Right Now

The results of BofA Merrill Lynch's November Global Fund Manager Survey are out. Each month, the survey asks clients that manage hedge funds, institutional funds, and mutual funds what they perceive to be the biggest "tail risk" to markets — i.e., which low-probability event would have the biggest impact on the way investors are positioned? Last month, amid the government shutdown in the United States, it was U.S. fiscal tightening. This...

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ECB May Soon Join The Flight Of The Doves

Even as the euro zone economy shows faint signs of stirring, the European Central Bank is likely to send a dovish message this week that more monetary help will be on the way before long. After a plunge in inflation to 0.7 percent in the year to October, well below the ECB's target of just under 2 percent, UBS and RBS are among those who reckon a rate cut could come as soon as Thursday's policy-setting meeting. At the very...

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BARCLAYS: Sell EUR/USD Into ECB, Sell USD/JPY Into NFP

Investors following short-term macro strategies should consider selling EUR/USD and selling USD/JPY this week, advises Barclays Capital in its weekly FX pick(s) to clients.  On the EUR/USD trade, it's a tactical short into the ECB meeting on Thursday. Barclays' rationale behind this call is as follows.  "Although market expectations for ECB action (Thurs) have grown due to the weak inflation print, we think a December move is much...

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INTERVIEW: The World According To Jim Rogers

Back in 1970, Jim Rogers, along with George Soros, founded the Quantum Fund, which went on to be one of the most successful hedge funds of all time. Ten years later, Rogers “retired” and set out to travel the world by motorcycle “to learn what people and countries were doing and to see how well they were doing it.” In the years since, Rogers has written six books, appeared frequently on television and made two more globetrotting treks. Mike...

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