Investors following short-term macro strategies should consider selling AUD/USD this week, advises Barclays Capital in its weekly FX pick to clients. The trade is a tactical short around the minutes of the RBA and the FOMC this week.
"The RBA communication this week is likely to weigh on the AUD. Minutes from its November policy statement (Tuesday) are likely to reiterate the central bank’s concerns about the high level of the AUD. In addition, Governor Stevens is scheduled to speak on “The Australian dollar: Thirty years of floating” (Thursday). The governor will probably go on to argue that in the current circumstances, a lower exchange rate would help the economy deal with the end of the boom in mining investment," Barclays clarifies.
"As for the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), the focus is whether there is any discussion of lowering unemployment rate threshold and if so, the degree of consensus. We believe the Minutes will show such a policy move is not an imminent, and some knee-jerk USD buying is likely, given that recently published Fed Staff papers raised expectations for doing so," Barclays adds.
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