This week’s RBA minutes should maintain AUD pressure in the wake of Governor Stevens’ comments this week. Suggesting that a fairer value for AUD/USD was closer to 0.85, the governor’s comments have prompted not only significant currency selling but also an adjustment lower in policy rate expectations.
Reinforcing RBA board member concerns surrounding an inflated AUD TWI, this week’s minutes should therefore provide further fuel for bearish AUD speculators.
Indeed just as AUD’s perceived FX liquidity status relative to its GDP size provided abnormal levels of foreign investor demand during the Fed-QE liquidity boom, it now appears AUD will be singled out for abnormal levels of investor supply for similar reasons as markets move towards the post Fed-QE era.
We therefore look for AUD/USD to push lower this week towards the pair’s 5 August low of 0.8848 but warn of a possible temporary bounce on any Fed QE-taper disappointment.
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