In the near to medium term, Goldman Sachs projects that European currencies still have some scope to strengthen against the USD and may generally outperform in the near term until EUR appreciation forces the ECB to act more strongly to limit the tightening of financial conditions. In line with this view,GS expects EUR/USD to trade around 1.38, 1.40, and 140 in 3, 6, and 12 months.
"The reason why we do not expect very pronounced Dollar strength during that phase is quite simply that accelerating growth in the US would also trigger a renewed deterioration in the current account position. Moreover, improving risk sentiment in the US, together with stable growth in the rest of the world, often leads to increasing overseas allocations by US investors. These balance of payments dynamics will – as in the past – limit the ability for the Dollar to outperform strongly," GS clarifies the main rationale behind this view
However, as we go through 2014, GS expects markets will focus increasingly on the FX impact of reduced monetary accommodation, although they expect this to become a bigger theme in 2015.
"When we look out a bit further towards 2015 and 2016, the exit strategies from ultra-accommodative monetary policies will become a key driver of FX markets. Our assumption is that better growth in the US and possibly in the UK will lead to a steeper, and probably earlier, tightening from the Fed and BoE than from the ECB. No policy tightening is expected in Japan in the foreseeable future. Most other central banks are likely to struggle to tighten their monetary policies in a meaningful way before the Fed. As a result, we see moderate Dollar strength from 2015 onwards," GS projects.
In line with this view, GS expects EUR/USD to trade around 1.35, 1.25, and 1.20 by end of 2015, 2016, and 2017.
0 commentaires:
Enregistrer un commentaire