CREDIT AGRICOLE: GBP Next Week: A Buy Or A Sell

We continue to expect the GBP to remain well supported, against both the EUR and the USD. According to BoE Governor Carney there could be additional stimulus in terms of further quantitative easing if necessary. He also stressed that the BoE was ready to ease rates further should higher rates start to impact the economy. Nevertheless, he similarly stressed that there are signs that the recent recovery is broad based and set to continue....

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Investors Are Dumping Emerging Markets At An Accelerating Pace

The brutal financial asset sell-off in the Emerging Markets picked up this week. And it's all reflected in the fund flows reports. "Emerging Markets debt-dedicated funds recorded net outflows of $2,013MM (0.84% AUM) for the week ending on August 28, 2013, reports EPFR," said Morgan Stanley's Robert Habib. "Outflows increased for the third consecutive week and were the highest since they peaked late in June at nearly $6bn (2.2% of AUM). The total...

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Five Takeaways from GDP Revisions

(This story has been posted on The Wall Street Journal Online's Real Time Economics blog at http://blogs.wsj.com/economics) By Ben Casselman The U.S. economy grew at a 2.5% annual rate in the second quarter of the year, the Commerce Department said Thursday, an upgrade from the 1.7% rate the government initially estimated. Economists are still digesting today's report, but here are five initial takeaways. Old news, but good news: Thursday's...

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Dollar Rises on Data, But Strong Payrolls Needed

Jobless claims fell as expected and 2Q GDP got revised up, and with QE tapering on everybody's mind, that seems to be enough to make the dollar rally against just about everything, from the yen and euro to the Scandies. How long those dollar gains will last, however, is up for debate. On its own, the jobless claims number isn't impressive enough to herald a strong August payrolls number next week, which is the key piece of data investors are now...

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SOCGEN: The Syria Conflict Could Spill Over Into Iraq, And Brent Oil Could Surge To $150

Oil has been rising lately, as the prospects for some kind of strike in Syria seem like almost a sure thing. But why does Syria really matter to oil? Michael Wittner at SocGen has produced a special 3-page note for clients on the matter of what a strike would mean for the oil market. He notes that Syria itself is not a real player in the oil market, so that's not the issue. The concern is "spillover." And he's got his eye on Iraq,...

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Here's What This Debt Ceiling Debate Of 2013 Means For Thre US Credit Rating

Yesterday afternoon, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew told Congress that the U.S. would hit the debt ceiling in mid-October. So, what does this due to the credibility of the U.S. in the eyes of its creditors. Well, in the wake of the 2011 debt ceiling debate, the U.S. saw its AAA credit rating stripped by S&P.  It's worth noting, however, that interest rates actually trended lower for two years. In a note to clients on August 16,...

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BARCLAYS - Outlooks & Strategies For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, & AUD/USD

The following are the latest technical outlooks and strategies for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at Barclays Capital. EUR/USD:An Inside day posted yesterday keeps our view unchanged. We maintain a bearish view targeting 1.3300/10 initially, and then the 1.3200/20 area. Sell rallies while 1.3420 caps on a closing basis. USD/JPY: Having failed to move above trendline resistance at 99.15, we...

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Treasurys Rise on Renewed Haven Allure

US government bonds extend Monday's gains, driven by the unfamiliar sight of flight-to-safety bids. The conflict in Syria is hitting investors' nerves, setting up the classic haven flows that are lifting gold and the yen and weighing on equities globally. To be sure, gains in Treasurys are still capped by the looming prospect of Fed tapering in 3 weeks. But should US data continue to disappoint--consumer confidence and home prices are out today--the...

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Barack Obama’s Iraq Syndrome

The arab street hates Barack Obama. Many angry Egyptians accuse him of secretly supporting the Islamists who ran the country until July. Many others (equally angry) accuse him of backing the generals who overthrew the Islamists. Both charges cannot be right. Indeed, neither is. Yet loathing of Mr Obama runs wide and deep in the Muslim world, though he came to office vowing to mend relations with it, after the hubris and blunders of his predecessor. When...

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Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan. An Orderflow Trader's Day Trading Plan.

I have written an article for the great educational website on orderflow trading www.orderflowtrading.com. The subject aim at helping new traders to write their own trading plan. As an example of what an orderflow day trading plan can look like, I am sharing my own which I am trading profitably for a number of months now. You can find the artile here: http://t.co/UbLhp46L...

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FX Macro And Sentiment Analysis - Week 35 - 2013

US Dollar : Neutral Though we have yet to see the wave of deleveraging wash over US equities – the stronghold of moral hazard – we have nonetheless seen a significant market adjustment to the September Fed Taper. If the dollar is to extend its climb, Taper concern needs to evolve into a full blown ‘risk aversion’ trend for the global financial markets. Over the past weeks and months, we have seen early speculation turn...

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BAML: You’re Reading The FOMC Minutes Wrong, ’Twas Dovish!

Ethan Harris and the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Economics team go out on a limb in saying the market may be misinterpreting yesterday's Fed minutes... Caution from the Committee While Fed officials seemed to be overall confident in the recovery, some cracksappeared relative to their June meeting. For example, they acknowledgeduncertainty in the outlook from the sequester. They noted the disconnect betweenthe unemployment rate and...

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Is 'Chaos' Ahead? Some Truths About Fed Policy

Investors focusing on the tapering question probably are missing the bigger picture about Federal Reserve policy and how it will continue to shape financial markets. The central bank itself has been insistent recently that the $85 billion a month in bond purchases surrounding the tapering question are the less relevant of the two main prongs—the other being the near-zero funds rate—of the historically easy monetary policy since the financial...

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