Of all data releases, surprises in monthly nonfarm payrolls move bonds and stocks most. Goldman Sachs finds that a 1-standard-deviation surprise--about a 80K swing--causes an average 5-basis-point move in the 10-year yield and 0.3% impact on the S&P 500. But when it comes to predictive powers for how the economy will actually fare in the months ahead, the investment bank finds payrolls has little. Instead, the Philly Fed and ISM manufacturing reports best illustrate the economy's strength and momentum. Those reports are both more timely (released shortly after surveys are taken) and subject to smaller revisions, says Goldman. The latest data from both were also surprisingly upbeat, contrasting the underwhelming July jobs. August Philly Fed comes Thursday.
(cynthia.lin@dowjones.com; cynthialin_dj)
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