Morgan Stanley entered into a macro tactical short EUR/USD trade from 1.3300 with a stop at 1.3440, and a target at 1.2700. Interestingly, MS is almost replicating the same levels of its last profitable short EUR/USD trade from July (opened 1.3310, with a stop at 1.3440, and a target at 1.2800).
On the USD front, MS' bullish view revolves mainly on expecting the Fed QE tapering to start in September.
"We believe that this presents a bullish environment for the USD over the medium term, as the Fed continues to provide a supportive policy for the domestic economy, but slowing the growth of USD liquidity which has been used to fund broader global risk markets. We expect the US to increase its attractiveness as a longer term investment destination, as has become evident with the cross-border M&A activity, where net announced deals now show a net inflow to the US," MS clarifies.
On the EUR front, MS' bearish view revolves around the ECB policy and the risk of the German elections and Constitutional Court ruling on OMT.
"The ECB has reaffirmed its downward basis to rates, which given the recent robustness of data, including the rebound in the PMIs and the resilience of inflation, is probably as bold a step as can be expected at this point, especially when viewed within the broader context of political and constitutional constraints... Our EUR bearish view also goes beyond the current ECB policy setting process, with German politics also likely to come back into focus as the German elections approach, adding to uncertainty. Also the German constitutional court ruling on the OMT could prove to be less flexible than previous rulings, in our view, with a tougher stance potentially leaving the perception that this particular policy tool is likely to prove ineffective," MS adds.
0 commentaires:
Enregistrer un commentaire